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AFK Arena Summon Probabilities

This is a guide and calculator for the probabilities of hero summons in the noble tavern.

The data & concept for this page was contributed by Salkasm (Discord: Salkasm#4688) and kindly shared for the purpose of this page.

Probability Calculator

This is a probability calculator for summoning heroes in the noble tavern. It’s based on the EXACT amount of heroes you could obtain in 1, 5 & 10 attempts.

Due to rounding, probabilities below 0.05% are defined as 0%.

You have a 30.12% chance to obtain 2 Common card(s) from 5 pull(s).


P is the probability of obtaining the exact success, n is the amount of tries (like 2700 Crystals is a pull of 10 heroes), k is the amount of successes (like, pulling 2 elite heroes in those 10 pulls) and x is the probability of the individual card (Common is 51.69%, Rare is 43.70% and Elite is 4.61%, as specified in-game).

When Can You Expect 1 Elite Hero?

On average, you can expect 1 Elite hero every 21.69 pulls (22 rounded upwards).

Thanks to BlackBacon, Kuroi & Xanzyl for helping correct this!

Pulling At Least 1 Hero

This is the probability to pull AT LEAST 1 hero of each rarity.

Hero PullsCommonRareElite
At least 1 in 597.37%94.34%21.03%
At least 1 in 1099.94%99.69%37.63%
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