AFK Arena Summon Probabilities
This is a guide and calculator for the probabilities of hero summons in the noble tavern.
The data & concept for this page was contributed by Salkasm (Discord: Salkasm#4688) and kindly shared for the purpose of this page.
This is a probability calculator for summoning heroes in the noble tavern. It’s based on the EXACT amount of heroes you could obtain in 1, 5 & 10 attempts.
Due to rounding, probabilities below 0.05% are defined as 0%.
You have a 30.12% chance to obtain 2 Common card(s) from 5 pull(s).
P is the probability of obtaining the exact success, n is the amount of tries (like 2700 Crystals is a pull of 10 heroes), k is the amount of successes (like, pulling 2 elite heroes in those 10 pulls) and x is the probability of the individual card (Common is 51.69%, Rare is 43.70% and Elite is 4.61%, as specified in-game).
When Can You Expect 1 Elite Hero?
On average, you can expect 1 Elite hero every 21.69 pulls (22 rounded upwards).
Thanks to BlackBacon, Kuroi & Xanzyl for helping correct this!
Pulling At Least 1 Hero
This is the probability to pull AT LEAST 1 hero of each rarity.
|At least 1 in 5||97.37%||94.34%||21.03%|
|At least 1 in 10||99.94%||99.69%||37.63%|